Why some NFL Week 1 hot takes will be so wrong

Week 2 has mercifully arrived to give us a better idea as to how many of our many Week 1 overreactions will have a realistic chance of ringing true.

The Dolphins will go 0-16: It took one game for several players to contact their agents about deserting this sinking ship. Safety Minkah Fitzpatrick is one of them. Prediction: The Fish Tank belongs in the XFL. Or the SEC. Prediction: Tua Tagovailoa.
Overreaction? No.

The Cowboys are Super Bowl contenders: Dak Prescott is no $40 million quarterback, even if the Giants made him resemble one, but Jerry Jones has no choice but to make his leader happy. The hiring of offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, emergence of receiver Michael Gallup and return of tight end Jason Witten have enabled Prescott to take the load off Ezekiel Elliott. The Boys will be battling the Eagles for the NFC East title.
Overreaction? No.

Same Old Browns: Over Baker Mayfield’s dead body. There’s too much talent, on both sides of the ball, for Freddie Kitchens to screw this up. Odell, meet Gregg. Gregg, meet Odell.
Overreaction? Yes.

Lamar Jackson will make Baltimore forget John Unitas: He is proving he can be much more than a running quarterback. But he threw five touchdowns against the Dolphins. Rookie wideouts Marquise “Hollywood” Brown and Miles Boykin, and tight end Mark Andrews will help Jackson make a second-year leap, but let’s not jump him ahead of Mayfield or Sam Darnold just yet.
Overreaction? Yes.

Gardner Minshew can be Tom Brady: The mustachioed rookie quarterback with the porn-star look made like Phil Simms in Pasadena — 22-of-25 sound familiar? — after Nick Foles (collarbone) was lost until Week 11 at the earliest. Alas, the only comparison to Brady one can make is Minshew was also a sixth-round draft choice.
Overreaction? Yes.

The Bears should have drafted Patrick Mahomes or Deshaun Watson instead of Mitch Trubisky: Bears GM Ryan Pace traded up from the third slot to second to grab Trubisky, who certainly improved in his second season under coach Matt Nagy but looks nowhere near the stars that Mahomes and Watson already are.
Overreaction? No.

The Colts won’t make the playoffs with Jacoby Brissett: A shame for them that Andrew Luck retired, but the next man up ain’t chopped liver. GM Chris Ballard has built a formidable surrounding cast — and the Jaguars just lost Foles, the Texans no longer have Jadeveon Clowney and do you trust Marcus Mariota to lift the Titans? The division is up for grabs.
Overreaction? Yes.

Sammy Watkins will be better this season than 2014 draft classmates Mike Evans and Odell Beckham Jr.: Well, he just might, if Bruce Arians can’t keep Jameis Winston from throwing it to the other guys and Beckham is accidentally tripped by Gregg Williams near the Jets sideline Monday night. Or falls out of love with Mayfield and yearns for the good old days with Eli Manning. Watkins’ explosion against the Jaguars (9-198, three TDs) caught fantasy owners (and the Jaguars) off guard, and Tyreek Hill is out 4-6 weeks. And that’s Mahomes slinging him the ball.
Overreaction? No.

Kyler Murray will be better than Drew Brees and Russell Wilson: You’re kidding, right? Who comes up with these questions? The kid got into a rhythm and staged a dramatic comeback for a tie with the Lions, reminding everyone he has a rocket arm and knows how to play the game. But Brees and Wilson will be Hall of Famers. It’s a bit early imagining Kliff Kingsbury presenting Murray in Canton.
Overreaction? Yes.

Kyler Murray will be better than Doug Flutie: That’s better.
Overreaction? No.

Adam Vinatieri is washed up: The GOAT missed a pair of field goals and a PAT in a six-point loss to the Chargers. I would not bet against the 46-year-old kicking version of Tom Brady.
Overreaction? Yes.

The Patriots can repeat with or without Antonio Brown: Bill Belichick has an elite defense and some 42-year-old GOAT quarterback who is a marvel to modern science. And at the first hint of trouble, Brown will be sent packing. And besides, everyone knows Rob Gronkowski will be unretiring when the time is right. Belichick has a healthy respect for Mahomes, but he beat him in Kansas City in the AFC Championship game, and look out if the next one is played in Foxborough. Ask the Steelers about that. In the meantime, with a rape allegation controversy swirling around Brown, it seems cruel for Belichick to unleash AB against these Dolphins.
Overreaction? No.

Zac Taylor is the next Sean McVay: Why? Because Andy Dalton threw for 418 yards and two TDs against the Seahawks? Because he learned under McVay? Slow your roll.
Overreaction? Yes.

Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers will miss Brown and Le’Veon Bell: They won’t miss the divisive headaches Brown gave them, but JuJu Smith-Schuster is a borderline WR1 at best, and deep threat James Washington is still developing. James Conner was a revelation last season, but now he must prove he isn’ t a one-hit wonder. He was 10-21 rushing and 4-44 receiving against the Pats.
Overreaction? No.

Vic Fangio is no upgrade over Vance Joseph: The former Bears defensive coordinator was outcoached by Jon Gruden in his Broncos debut, but the good news is his extensive knowledge of Trubisky and Matt Nagy’s offense will help Sunday.
Overreaction? Yes.

Carson Wentz will give Mahomes a run for his MVP money: Wentz is healthy again. He looks the way he did in 2017 (33 TDs, seven INTs). And Desean Jackson is back as a deep threat.
Overreaction? No.

Jimmy Garoppolo is no longer the heir to the Joe Montana throne: Jimmy GQ was certainly rusty, throwing high and devoid of nerve and moxie in the opener, and there are already rumblings coach Kyle Shanahan is fond of backup Nick Mullens. It may take much of the year for Garoppolo to stop babying the left ACL he tore last September. A better receiving corps would help. Anybody remember when he was 5-0 in 2017? Didn’t think so. But he’s still a $137.5 million man.
Overreaction? Yes.

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