The risk/rewards of sophomore QBs

Everybody likes going back for seconds. Well, except those who suffer a sophomore jinx. But recently, there seems to be a trend in second-year quarterbacks rising to fantasy prominence, as opposed to the other way around.

Jared Goff, Mitchell Trubisky, even Patrick Mahomes. These QBs took big leaps in fantasy production from Year 1 to Year 2 — though in Mahomes’ case it was due to a lack of playing time, but Year 1 is what Year 1 is.

One is an anomaly, two is a coincidence, three is a trend. So the Fantasy Madman will devote due attention to second-year QBs. And we’ll start with Josh Allen.

The Bills youngster is not a prototypical pocket passer — lacking accuracy and with questionable reads. But he makes up for it with his legs. Having added speedster John Brown and slot man Cole Beasley is significant, even if they aren’t marquee names. Both are improvements over what the Bills had last season. And with the hope Zay Jones can finally reach his potential, there is reason for optimism in the passing game, even with an erratic quarterback.

The running game is a phantom. LeSean McCoy is a statue with the ball in his hands. Frank Gore is … well … how is he still playing? Sure, he defies us every season, but eventually he won’t. We’re betting it is this one. T.J. Yeldon is a JAG (Just Another Guy). Rookie Devin Singletary is interesting, but we might not know what he is capable of until there is a thinning of the herd. And even then, still a mystery. Hence, no confidence in the Bills running game …

Outside of Allen. Who also is the primary passer. So yeah, we like Allen, particularly because you can get him in the 13th round of basic 12-team PPR leagues.

Sam Darnold looked good to end last season. And the Jets have since added a legitimate threat in the running game and bona fide check-down passing target in Le’Veon Bell. And they added a solid slot receiver in Jamison Crowder.

Considering new coach Adam Gase is an offensive mind and previous coach Todd Bowles decidedly was not, despite Gase’s unremarkable history in Miami it is reasonable to think he could provide an added boost to the Jets’ offense. The unit, from a fantasy perspective, would impact Darnold most directly.

Lamar Jackson engineered a remarkable run to end the season last year. Yet, a disproportionate amount of his productivity came on the ground. This is troublesome on a couple of fronts. Because he has limited options at receiver and he isn’t of significant football stature (he isn’t built like Cam Newton, but more like Robert Griffin III), we have worries regarding his passing proficiency and his durability.

He is being drafted in close proximity to Jimmy Garoppolo, ahead of Allen and Kirk Cousins, all of whom we prefer over Jackson. We rank Jackson closer to Darnold. Because you can get Darnold in the 14th round, we prefer him.

A lot of people are on the Baker Mayfield Hype Train. And for good reason. He looked great in closing out last season. And the Browns added star receiver Odell Beckham Jr. They have a young RB in Nick Chubb who was impressive once he took over the feature role last season. They added Kareem Hunt, who will serve an eight-game suspension but should work his way into the offense late in the season.

Everything is lined up for Mayfield to build on his rookie success, right? Well, there is a thing called the Sophomore Slump. We worry about a team that has been a doormat recently and now has to carry the weight of expectations. We have concerns about bringing in new talent that dramatically changes the play-calling and atmosphere that fostered last year’s late-season surge. And they have a rookie head coach.

Let’s say we’re tapping the brakes on Mayfield. We’re not scared of him, we are confident starting him every week. But as a sixth-round pick? That is where we would begin to consider Mahomes, if he ever lasted that long. Mayfield routinely is drafted ahead of Matt Ryan, Carson Wentz, Newton or Russell Wilson? Whoops. We’re not biting. From our perspective, Mayfield is going about four rounds too early. Let someone else swim in those waters.

Which brings us to Josh Rosen. Well, he plays for the Dolphins, who might have the worst roster in the league. But … he could have a healthy Albert Wilson, who was a big-play phenom last season — and that is assuming Rosen wins the starting job ahead of Ryan Fitzpatrick, which is no given. So though you can ignore most Dolphins in the draft, including Rosen, give them selective consideration in daily-fantasy formats. They will have a big week or two together.

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